We have had so many months of jobs gains that the monthly employment report has held little intrigue lately. As a matter of fact, the ancillary numbers such as wage inflation have garnered more attention than the number of jobs gained in some circles. For at least one month, this is no longer the case. In October, the number of jobs added was a paltry 12,000, the lowest number by far since the pandemic-induced recession. The average monthly gain for the previous 12 months was 194,000 according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Even though the pace of job growth was expected to slow from the torrid pace we have seen in the past three-plus years, few were expecting this paltry increase – even with temporary factors considered. These temporary factors included two major storms and two major labor strikes as well. Though the numbers again may be affected by some of these factors, the November report released this week should give us a clearer picture as to how much the labor market is slowing. And the pace of wage inflation will still be an important component of the equation.

Meanwhile, December is always an important month for the economy as the holiday shopping season will be going full throttle. This will occur without the uncertainty of who will occupy the Oval Office, but with plenty of uncertainty with regard to the upcoming transition. Throughout the past few years, the low unemployment rate and consumer spending has fueled economic growth – as well as inflation. If consumers continue to open their wallets, the economy should end 2024 on a positive note. Especially if the Fed acts to lower rates again in December.