A panel of housing experts expects annual national home price growth of 3.8% this year and 3.4% in 2025, according to the Q1 2024 Fannie Mae Home Price Expectations Survey. Fannie Mae and Pulsenomics polled more than 100 experts across the housing and mortgage industry and academia for their forecasts of national home price percentage changes as measured by the Fannie Mae Home Price Index to create the HPES. Their consensus for national home price growth is higher than last quarter’s expectations of 2.4% for 2024 and 2.7% for 2025. Additionally, a higher percentage of panelists indicated higher upside risk to their home price forecasts–41 percent in the first quarter compared to 26 percent in fourth-quarter 2023–with a majority citing ongoing housing supply constraints and lower mortgage rates as their basis for that belief.

The panel also projects a median 30-year fixed mortgage rate of 6% by the end of 2024. “On average, our panelists continue to expect home price growth to decelerate this year, but their overall outlook was revised upward this quarter, with most now reporting greater upside risk to home prices than downside risk,” said Hamilton Fout, Fannie Mae vice president of economics. “If mortgage rates move toward the panel-predicted six percent median rate by the end of 2024, we would expect this to be supportive of continued home price growth, particularly given the persistent supply-side challenges facing the housing market.” Terry Loebs, founder of Pulsenomics, added: “This is a positive outlook for those who already own a home, but as the dearth of listings boosts both prevailing values and expected future prices, the affordability concerns of prospective homebuyers are unlikely to fade soon.”

Source: Fannie Mae